Mercer Islanders for Mike Cero

I've been critical of how the City Council campaign for Mercer Island newcomer Maureen Judge is financed almost entirely by non-residents and special interest groups. Several people have complained that I haven't given a similar critical look at Mike Cero and his campaign, and one anonymous reader even tipped me off that Mike's newest contributors are also off-island. I've been too lazy till now to check the facts, but I guess it's better late than never:

	Mike	Maureen
Median Donation	$50	$100
Ave Donation	$110	$150
New indiv donors since the primary	50	8

As you can see, the anonymous tipster was completely wrong. Not only does Mike get nearly all his money from Island residents, but he also has a far broader base of support -- about double the number of individual donors as Maureen. Presumably he can count on at least 200 votes if you assume that everyone who donated will also vote for him. Actually, that's not necessarily true: some people contributed to both campaigns! (interestingly, the "double-dippers" gave to Maureen early in the Spring, then switched to Mike within the past two months).

It's clear that Maureen, who filed for City Council less than 9 months after moving to the Island, is a long-term bet by the Democratic party to establish a "bench" of experienced political leaders who can move on to state or national offices. Darcy Burner, for example, lost the 2006 congressional election in part because many voters who were otherwise frustrated by Bush and Iraq simply couldn't bring themselves to vote for somebody with no civic experience. Too bad Darcy wasn't first elected to Mercer Island City Council.

So what about Mike? If the Democrats see this as an important partisan race, what do the Republicans think? and are they voting with their wallets the way that special interests have rallied behind Maureen? The short answer is no, not officially: neither of his off-island donors are reliable Republicans. Yes, most of his top Islander contributors do in fact donate regularly to Republicans, but at least two of the top ten contributed to Nobel Prize Winner Al Gore's past campaigns (I presume that means they're Democrats) and another shows up on the official list of people whose ballots were mistakenly not counted during the 2004 election (Gregoire's razor-thin election recount depends on it being a Democrat).

Since Maureen is so clearly backed by the Democrats as a long-term national bet, that explains why so few big-time Democratic donors have openly backed Mike. In looking over the donation records of Maureen's key supporters (the school board members, the former mayors, etc. who have endorsed her) -- virtually all of them are active in the Democratic Party. What could they possibly gain by openly supporting her opponent, especially when many of them announced their support for her before it was even clear who else would be running? By default, that means Mike is going to attract non-Democratic donors.

Bottom line: in spite of Maureen's impressive Democratic endorsements, Mike's one-voter-at-a-time grassroots campaign is real competition.

Why does he bother?

El Jahncke, Mercer Island resident since 1978, is running uncontested for reelection to the City Council.  He has raised exactly $0 for his campaign.  By all accounts, he is well-respected and well-liked.  He will win no matter what he does.

In spite of that, he goes out of his way to post signs (personally?), file his biography in the official voters pamphlet, and make himself available to the public, almost as if he's really running for reelection.  Does he somehow think that we, the voting public, matter?

 

But why does he bother?  His fellow councilman, Steve Litzow, is also running uncontested and his biography doesn't even appear in the voters pamphlet.  Steve raised more than $20K for this election, and spent more than half of it, mostly on consulting services.   Steve sent a $3,000 fund-raising letter in May -- how come I didn't get one?!  -- but otherwise, in contrast to El Jahncke, I haven't seen any evidence whatsoever that he's campaigning.  What do all his consultants ($3,000 -- billed long after it was clear he was running uncontested), web site designers ($500), book-keepers ($1000), and others do? 

Update: shortly after this was posted, Steve Litzow signs started popping up all over.  Today I even got my direct mail piece.  His web site is up and running and looking very slick.  Go Steve!

The Inevitable Thaw in Global Warming

As I've said before, it is an indisputable scientific fact that the world is getting warmer, that the trend is likely to continue, and that humans are partly if not mostly responsible. The only real question is what, if anything, should be done about it.

The new Harvard Business Review has a whole section on it, featuring my b-school hero Michael Porter, and futurist Peter Schwartz who I respect greatly, but -- am I crazy? --I can't find a single recommendation that wouldn't be worth doing even if the world were not warming. Reduce transportation costs? Manage water resources wisely? A smart firm should do those things, period.

Sorry, there are a few exceptions. Michael Porter suggests that in some industries, new government regulations promoting carbon trading could make it more profitable for, say, a forestry company to plant rather than harvest trees. But that's a fake example that applies to any government policy. Farmers already plant unwanted crops when the government artificially subsidizes them.

Now I see that in our local Mercer Island City Council election of all places, we have candidate Patti Darling making this her number one campaign issue. How ridiculous is that? Reduce our carbon footprint, she says!? What on earth does that have to do with zoning, traffic, taxes--the issues that matter to me? Name one thing you would do on Mercer Island to reduce carbon emissions that wouldn't be smart even if there were no global warming? I dare you: think of a specific proposal that can't be justified for better, more practical and short-term reasons.

By the way, I'm ignoring the important fact that anything we do is so trivial that it will be completely irrelevant to the global climate. Sure, we can "show leadership" or whatever, but our sister city in China will be happy to out-pollute our leadership if it offers a way out of poverty.

Even if the entire world were to unite on this issue, most people agree that significant climate change is inevitable no matter what we do. But here's my point: we're not interested in an issue whose significant effects take decades, where mitigation steps are important for good reasons that have nothing to do with climate, and especially when it's clear to us that politicians and businesses are using this as crude attempt to sound like they care.

So I have a prediction: the 2008 election season will be the high point for "Global Warming" as a significant campaign issue. By 2012, and certainly within a decade or two, public attention will return to other, more meaningful problems. Sure, sea levels might rise and polar bears might die, but 2050 is a long, long time from now and we'll have long since given up on politicians who can't describe their platform more pragmatically.

Bonus question: how come nobody runs a City Council campaign on solving the Arab-Israeli conflict, or better relations with China, or reducing third world poverty? Any of those issues would have immediate relevance to many of us (and our relatives) today, could drive practical local initiatives (like sister city programs), and would have sustainable long-term benefits to children.

Democratic Candidate Maureen Judge

Okay, here it is in black and white about what Maureen Judge supporters think about the supposedly non-partisan City Council election:

The Democrats are building a deep, deep bench with candidates like Maureen Judge in Mercer Island and Keri Andrews in Bellevue.

[from horsesass.org]

I have no doubt that Maureen is intelligent, caring, and laser-focused on the politics of winning an election. But how interested, really, is she in local affairs?  I bet she couldn't care less about the traffic on my street (not enough voters), or about issues that matter to my school (too local). 

Why doesn't she run for state legislature, or Congress?  I might vote for her.  But if she wins the City Council election, who's going to represent me on zoning issues or traffic or parks? 

The Internet is changing everything, including politics, to be hyper-individualized and hyper-local. Maureen is taking a logical step -- use non-local money and national issues to convince voters they can trust her.  In the long, long run, that won't work, as online tools like Facebook make it ultra-easy for local/individual issues to trump national ones.  In a few years, a newcomer supported mostly by outside interests will be ignored.

Meanwhile this election will be an interesting test.  Can Mike Cero, with his close personal connections to Islanders, trump somebody whose only relationship to voters is their party affiliation?

Bonus question: what would happen if Maureen campaigned openly as a Democrat?  Would she gain or lose more votes overall? 

Million Dollar Quartet

We endured rain at the Issaquah Salmon Festival again this year (in spite of my previous experiences there) to attend a performance of Million Dollar Quartet at the Village Theatre.

As predicted, the music was excellent -- I think the casting call went to musicians, not actors.  The plot, if you can call it that, was so-so.  It described a legendary meeting of Johnny Cash, Carl Perkins, Elvis Presley, and Jerry Lee Lewis, so as you might expect, most of the people in the audience were senior citizens.

The American South is a remarkable place, sometimes associated (incorrectly, I think) with backwardness and poverty, but it's also at the core of America, as you can see from the contributions Southerners have made to American culture with Jazz, Blues, Rock N Roll, not to mention most of our post-War U.S. Presidents.  People from the Coasts, or foreigners: if you want to really understand America, you need to understand the South.

Camera truck on Mercer Island

Look at the cameras on top of this truck, spotted near the middle of Mercer Island yesterday.  If you peer closely through the tinted glass, you can see several laptop computers with various map-like displays.

The driver went systematically through every public street in our neighborhood, traveling at a pretty reasonable clip. I assume he was taking photos the whole time, which presumably means that in some future update of Windows Live Local, you'll see me holding a camera at the side of the road.

City Council Blogger

Randy Corman, Renton City Councilman for 14 years, has a blog that he updates nearly every day.  Many people think Mercer Island could use televised city council proceedings, and I don't disagree, but a blog is so much better.  You really get a sense of what a public official is up to.

Local officials and candidates send dozens of emails each day.  They could save time by simply posting their daily thoughts on line and pointing others to it. 

Incidentally I just noticed that Mike Cero has a regular newsletter (the latest was just published October 2nd).  It's quite informative, and gives you a good sense of what he stands for.  Too bad it's only in PDF, which is annoying to read on line and doesn't show up in Google searches. Still, it's much more information than you get about the other candidates, none of whom has any online updates that I can see.