[book] Daniel Pink on Selling

Business author Daniel Pink first impressed me on an Econtalk episode a few years ago with his ideas about what motivates people (the subject of his book Drive). Earlier this month he published a new book, To Sell Is Human, and I heard him talk about it today. (I always enjoy seeing an author in person!)

The central claim of the book (at least, based on what I took from his talk) is that although 9% of the American workforce works in a “sales” job (more than double the percentage that works in all forms of government, by the way), the rest of us spend a big part of our day trying to “persuade people to part with something of value, in exchange for something else”, which Pink claims is basically the same thing.  The talk (and the book) is mostly about ways to enhance our abilities to sell: “Increase your power by reducing it”, “use your head as much as your heart” and other good, practical advice.

Successful selling -- persuasion – requires a good understanding of the other person’s needs, but it turns out that high-status and “powerful” people (managers, politicians) are often pretty bad at that.  In fact, a 2006 paper by Kellogg business school profs Galinsky and Magee shows that power and self-orientation are often correlated. Conclusion: we need to be better at empathy.

But empathy – understanding the other person’s perspective – isn’t about understanding their “feelings”.  People who do best at selling are better at considering what the other side “thinks” more than what they “feel”. Interesting…and it matches my own experience and intuition.

My favorite part of the talk was Pink’s discussion of “social cartography”, and how good salespeople are instinctively able to tell who’s who in a given room, who matters for the decision-making and who doesn’t.  That’s a great skill, and Pink shows a wonderful chart to illustrate what we all know intuitively: that often the people who do the most talking are the least important.

He points to upcoming research from Adam Grant, a professor at my Alma Mater, that claims that while extroverts tend to be hired and promoted much more often in sales positions, they don’t perform that much better than introverts. Although this seems like good news for a natural introvert like me (assuming I wanted to be in sales), I take research like this with some skepticism.  Everything depends on methodology, it seems to me.

In fact, this is one of my biggest questions about Pink’s thesis. It might be possible to make claims about the art and practice of persuasion in general, but like most things, it seems to me this is highly situation- and context-dependent.

Frankly, I’m not sure it’s much of an insight to claim that everyone is selling.  I mean, even in a highly-specialized world, all jobs require some degree of just about every job.  Few people are full-time negotiators, for example, but all of us do it some of the time. Only a small percentage of people are “making stuff” in the sense that old-fashioned factory workers did, but broadly enough defined, we all make something. Saying that everyone is a salesperson seems to me to be a bit of a stretch.

That’s a quibble.  Daniel Pink provides some insight that is worth considering, but I would add that successful managers know to think like a team and that the right mix of skills, personalities, and experiences are as important as individual high performance. Though not mentioned in the book, Pink answered my comment about this with a pointer to the work of Brian Uzzi, from Kellogg.

I’m sold.

Easy homemade yogurt

Among the many important aspects of health that science can’t yet explain is the role of microbes, zillions of them in every part of your body, with far more varieties of DNA than you have in your own cells.

Something so abundant and variable from person to person must have an important function, so for the past few months and thanks to Seth Roberts I’ve become interested in fermented foods.

I considered buying a yogurt maker. At $50 and less, they’re not too expensive. But the last thing I need is more junk around the house, so finally last night I thought why not just make it myself using stuff we already have lying around.

It was unbelievably easy!  In fact, I’m not sure why I didn’t try this years ago.  Here’s what I did:

Equipment

• Ordinary 4-cup glass container with a rubber top.
• Heating pad and towel
• Saucepan for heating milk
• Any large bowl big enough to hold the glass container.
• Two cups of whole milk
• Half a tablespoon of plain yogurt. It’s important not to use too much. This is the “starter”, with live microbes.

Recipe

1. Boil some water and use it to sterilize the glass container. (I bet this step is optional)
2. Boil two cups of milk. Well, not quite boil, but heat it till it starts to get steamy. 
3. Pour cold water into the large bowl. Leave it half-full in the sink.
4. Pour the hot milk into the glass container and set the whole thing into the large bowl of water. (Don’t let water get into the milk)
5. Stir the milk until the temperature is about 110 degrees. I use my trusty latte thermometer, but you could probably also just do it by feel. Wait till it’s warm – warmer than your body’s 98.6 degrees, but well short of feeling hot.
6. Stir the yogurt into the milk and mix well.
7. Cover the container and put it on top of the heating pad.
8. Place the large bowl upside down on top of the container and heating pad.
9. Set heating pad to “medium”
10. Cover everything with a towel and leave it overnight.

Eight or so hours later, open it all up and find this:

I was surprised how thick it was, but the perfect, tangy smell was the giveaway: the best yogurt ever.

My first Arduino project: a temperature sensor

I've been saying for two years now that hardware is the future of software, and one center of action is the world of Arduino programmable microcontrollers. You can't really learn what's possible in a new technology field without trying it out for yourself, so I took the plunge and tried my own project, a very simple one to measure temperature and humidity in my house. Here's what I did:

I bought the following items (at Amazon)

• Arduino Uno R3 $21.95
• this temperature/humidity sensor:
  Virtuabotix DHT11 Digital Temperature/Humidity Sensor $5.60.
• and a $22 collection of assorted useful parts from Seeedstudio called Arduino Sidekick Basic Kit (Version 2) that includes:

Breadboard, Jumper wires, Color Led, Resistors, Buzzer, etc., all of this comes in its own handy box for easy transportation and minimal clutter. Parts list: Breadboard X1, Breadboard jumper wire X 70, Red Led X 10, Green Led X 10, RGB led X 1, Ceramic Capacitor (10nF X 10,100nF X 10), Electrolytic Capacitor (100uF X 5), Resistor (330X10,1kX10,10kX10), Tilt switch X 1, Thermistor X 1, Photo resistor X 1, Diode X 1, Buzzer X 1, Push button X 5, switch X 5, Mini Servo X 1, Potentiometer with knob X 1, Resistor Instructor card X 1, Plastic Box X 1

I installed the Arduino development environment on my Win7 PC and then hooked up this simple temperature sensor project:

The temperature sensor is a DHT11 and Virtuabotix has easy-to-understand libraries and other installation instructions.

Here's a screen shot of the sensor and development environment in action:

The entire project took about 90 minutes, including unwrapping the Arduino UNO, installing all software and libraries, and configuring and connecting the sensor.

It's extremely exciting to think about (1) how easy it was, and (2) all the other things I'm able to try now that I have this basic level of knowledge.

Printing in 3D

There is a wonderful online tool, tinkercard, that lets you easily and quickly build simple 3D models entirely in your web browser.  It's a competitor to SketchUp, the very cool CAD software that Google sold earlier this year, except it's browser-based and therefore cross-platform.

It took literally minutes for me to build a simple model in Tinkercard:

 

and then, with the press of a button I was able to host that same model on a commercial site, Sculpteo, where it is now for sale to anyone who wants it:

 

My crude, simple model can be printed in 3D for $165. I'm not sure why it's so expensive. You can print the object in different types of plastic, ceramic, or aluminum, some more pricey than others. You can also choose your own size, which I presume affects the price as well. 

Mass, customized 3D printing is still in its early days, so the objects you print are usually not as well-made as something built the traditional way, and it's more expensive. But it can be ideal for special situations where customization is ideal. Imagine giving custom objects to attendees at a wedding, or as sales promotional items to valuable potential customers.

I'm still trying to understand where this industry is at, and what its future will be. It brings back memories to me of the very early days of PCs, i.e. around 1980, when the field was populated by just a few hundred thousand hobbyists. Back then, many of the people most knowledgeable about the technology -- the academics and successful computer industry engineers -- didn't bother with PCs because they already had access to much better computers.  But their expertise actually held them back in the end as they were outrun by new entrants to the field. History is repeating itself…

Decentralization in the ancient world

The Terra Cotta warriors of ancient Xi’an are an impressive legacy of the early centuries BC, and they better be: during that period, something like 10% of the Chinese population was involved in Big Government-sponsored construction projects, including those tombs for the Qin Shi Huang, the first Emperor of China. The Great Wall, the Grand Canal, and many others are distinguished high points of Chinese civilization, and all of them were built by a powerful central non-elected government.

The Chinese legacy puts to shame the comparatively modest monuments that sprang from the market-based democratic economy of Ancient Greece. From the long viewpoint of history, this seems to show the advantages of powerful centralized governments.  A thousand years from now, nobody will remember the achievements of our greatest corporations, but who will forget the government-sponsored Apollo moon landing (or today’s Mars Curiosity probe)?

Or will they?  That’s why I thought this Econtalk podcast interview with Josiah Ober was interesting, because it shows that in fact Ancient Greece was a thriving, economically successful place that in general was almost certainly far wealthier than anything in China at the time. The legacy they left behind, while not visible like the monuments of the Qin Dynasty, is far more influential today.

From Ober’s Princeton/Stanford Working Paper, Wealthy Hellas.

Here are three reasons to believe that, compared to other ancient societies, Hellas was wealthy:

· Premise 1. The Greek economy grew steeply and steadily from 800-300 BC, both (a) in its aggregate size and (b) in per capita consumption. 

· Premise 2. By the fourth century BC Greece was (a) densely populated and (b) remarkably urbanized, yet (c) living standards remained high. 

· Premise 3. Wealth was distributed relatively equitably across Greek populations; there was a substantial “middling” class of persons who lived well above bare substance, yet below the level of elite consumption.

A few more claims:

• 30% of Greeks lived in cities with populations greater than 5000 (versus only 10-12% of the later Romans)
• 25-35% of the population lived on imported grain (evidence they were producing important trade goods)
• The Gini index of 0.7 corresponds favorably to 1472 Florence (0.788) or 1998 USA (0.79)

Many other fascinating thoughts throughout.

Michael Crichton’s last book: Micro

 

[I sent this from the iBooks app from my iPad]

From the first chapter, in a discussion about how children now are raised without an appreciation for how little science actually knows about the world:

Perhaps the single most important lesson to be learned by direct experience is that the natural world, with all its elements and interconnections, represents a complex system and therefore we cannot understand it and we cannot predict its behavior. It is delusional to behave as if we can, as it would be delusional to behave as if we could predict the stock market, another complex system. If someone claims to predict what a stock will do in the coming days, we know that person is either a crook or a charlatan. If an environmentalist makes similar claims about the environment, or an ecosystem, we have not yet learned to see him as a false prophet or a fool.

EXCERPT FROM

Crichton, Michael. "Micro." HarperCollins, 2011-12-01. iBooks.

(Almost) leaving China

Bubbles are fun! I lived in Tokyo for most of the late-80s and early-90s, Silicon Valley during the dot-com days, Seattle during the real estate peak of the 2000s, and for the past three years, my family and I have been living here in Beijing. For somebody whose first eighteen years were spent in Wisconsin farm country, I feel lucky to have had a front row seat watching the froth around me expand and expand and expand, until, well, until…

It’s recently been fashionable for departing expats to write about why, finally, they are giving up on China. Environmental issues (bad air, unsafe food), education, uneasiness about the political situation: there are many reasons for concern, all of them perfectly justifiable and in varying degrees applicable to anyone who lives here, including me. My situation is different because, although I first moved to Asia thirty years ago, I’ve only lived in China since 2009 – I am no “China expert” – and perhaps as a result of my shorter tenure, I’m still far too ignorant to “give up” on the place. When you’ve been through several bubbles, you see problems as just the inevitable growing pains that go along with life on the front lines of the future. China, I’m sure, will be fine.

Truth is, I enjoy China a lot, and intend to stay focused here, even after this month when I move back to our home on Mercer Island. There are still too many opportunities, and too many things I like:

People: I find the Chinese generally to be incredibly and refreshingly hard-working, long-suffering, and pragmatic about work and life in a way that I don’t always see in America anymore. My work colleagues are among the best I’ve ever known.

Vastness: An overwhelming population, of course, but also a huge land area, hundreds of major urban areas whose names you don’t even know, at least eight different cuisines, countless dialects and minority subgroups – China is impossible to describe without superlatives.

Inevitability: you can’t study China (and world) history and culture without recognizing how central the Chinese are to the entire human race, and will be even more important no matter what happens next.

Most of my friends and colleagues already know that this was the right time for me and my family to return to the US for a few years, but as you’ll see if you continue to follow me on Twitter and elsewhere, I’m not really leaving. Bubble or not, China will be a big part of the future for all of us.