Everything I know about macro-economics I learned in classes from my old finance professor Jeremy Siegel, so I basically trust everything he says, and he says no in a new podcast from Knowledge@Wharton. He's an optimist like me, and I've watched him come a long way since last year when he said 25%, then 30% chance of a recession, until now he thinks "professional economists" say the odds are 50-50. Bottom line: the Fed's recent cut will help, the politically-inspired government giveaway won't, and property prices will fall about 15% before bottoming out. Interestingly, he thinks there are some parallels to the bubble situation in Japan in the 1980s, but says we're responding far more appropriately.
I've been fairly cash-heavy for the past several months so at these new stock market prices, I'm going on a buying spree.