Thursday, January 24, 2008

Are we in a recession?

Everything I know about macro-economics I learned in classes from my old finance professor Jeremy Siegel, so I basically trust everything he says, and he says no in a new podcast from Knowledge@Wharton.   He's an optimist like me, and I've watched him come a long way since last year when he said 25%, then 30% chance of a recession, until now he thinks "professional economists" say the odds are 50-50.   Bottom line: the Fed's recent cut will help, the politically-inspired government giveaway won't, and property prices will fall about 15% before bottoming out.  Interestingly, he thinks there are some parallels to the bubble situation in Japan in the 1980s, but says we're responding far more appropriately.

I've been fairly cash-heavy for the past several months so at these new stock market prices, I'm going on a buying spree.

3 comments:

Econ Junkie said...

A buying spree now is like playing PASS on the craps table in Vegas. 50/50 you'll win. Good luck!

PS...you won't know if it's a recession for quite awhile (watch out for stagglation though!

Richard Sprague said...

Yeah, but i f you don't swing you don't hit and I'm a long-term optimist.

econ junkie said...

True...but it's the market optimism that counts..not yours!